Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3864 OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest OO 3936 OMA 17:35 → MSP 18:56 · 6% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3864 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 06:00	MSP 07:21	3%	2%	0.5%	87%
DL 3512 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 08:05	MSP 09:30	4%	3%	0.5%	87%
DL 3831 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OMA 10:52	MSP 12:15	4%	3%	0.5%	82%
OO 3946 SkyWest	OMA 13:39	MSP 15:00	6%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 3936 SkyWest	OMA 17:35	MSP 18:56	6%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON