Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AS 312 at 15:15, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 312 Alaska Flight history →	OMA 15:15	SEA 16:57	7%	2%	0.5%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest	3h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	9h 00m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:52 → MSP 12:15DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 08m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42DL 1136	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	11h 25m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:23 → ATL 13:38DL 2632	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	10h 42m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28DL 4110 · flown by SkyWest	3h 01m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	10h 04m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	OMA 14:02 → DTW 17:06DL 3762 · flown by SkyWest	3h 28m Detroit	DTW 20:34 → SEA 22:33DL 565	10h 31m	99%	86%
American Details →	OMA 15:02 → LAX 16:35AA 6506 · flown by SkyWest	3h 07m Los Angeles	LAX 19:42 → SEA 22:30AA 6371 · flown by SkyWest	9h 28m	100%	86%
United Details →	OMA 06:15 → IAH 08:37UA 2399	3h 32m Houston	IAH 12:09 → SEA 15:00UA 2228	10h 45m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON