Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 12:39, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 1623 United	OMA 07:04	SFO 08:52	10%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Omaha). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OMA 10:52 → MSP 12:15DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest	2h 52m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	8h 20m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest	3h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	9h 09m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42DL 1136	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → SFO 11:55DL 672	8h 30m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:28 → DTW 13:30DL 4055 · flown by SkyWest	2h 47m Detroit	DTW 16:17 → SFO 18:14DL 442	9h 46m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	OMA 14:02 → DTW 17:06DL 3762 · flown by SkyWest	2h 47m Detroit	DTW 19:53 → SFO 21:55DL 335	9h 53m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28DL 4110 · flown by SkyWest	2h 47m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → SFO 14:17DL 469	9h 52m	98%	84%
United Details →	OMA 09:06 → DEN 09:55UA 2838	3h 30m Denver	DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812	8h 03m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	OMA 17:25 → ATL 20:57DL 2364	58m Atlanta	ATL 21:55 → SFO 23:48DL 656	8h 23m	95%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON