tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 1369 at 07:29, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1369 Southwest ONT 07:29 BNA 13:12 5% 1% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121 9h 27m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 24m Denver DEN 09:44 → BNA 13:27UA 355 6h 27m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 3h 50m Denver DEN 20:28 → BNA 00:08 +1UA 1287 8h 50m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:25 → DFW 17:31AA 2956 3h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:15 → BNA 23:16AA 3230 8h 51m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:59 → ORD 13:00UA 2226 1h 18m Chicago ORD 14:18 → BNA 16:03UA 2142 7h 04m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:53 → BNA 14:59AA 1084 7h 25m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:59 → SEA 14:51DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest 2h 39m Seattle SEA 17:30 → BNA 23:54DL 815 9h 55m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 1h 25m Phoenix PHX 08:55 → BNA 14:42AA 1370 6h 31m 96% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ONT 06:02 → SEA 08:44AS 607 49m Seattle SEA 09:33 → BNA 15:53AS 522 7h 51m 72% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON