Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	1h 26m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	98%	89%
Alaska Details →	ONT 15:14 → SEA 17:58AS 575	3h 38m Seattle	SEA 21:36 → BWI 05:41 +1AS 781	11h 27m	100%	87%
United Details →	ONT 06:59 → ORD 13:00UA 2226	1h 46m Chicago	ORD 14:46 → BWI 17:52UA 2737	7h 53m	98%	85%
American Details →	ONT 08:26 → DFW 13:41AA 2893	3h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:07 → BWI 21:25AA 2251	9h 59m	98%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON