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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:48, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Charlotte on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177 9h 10m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 35m Denver DEN 09:55 → CLT 15:20UA 2231 7h 20m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 2h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52DL 2070 7h 52m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 2h 27m Phoenix PHX 09:57 → CLT 17:15AA 665 8h 04m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696 7h 02m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:25 → DFW 17:31AA 2956 3h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:46 → CLT 00:32 +1AA 460 9h 07m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → ONT 08:26 → DFW 13:41AA 2893 2h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:03 → CLT 19:47AA 2013 8h 21m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → ONT 10:25 → DFW 15:38AA 1820 2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:54 → CLT 21:44AA 1703 8h 19m 97% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON