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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 1h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033 7h 49m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 45m Denver DEN 10:05 → EWR 16:02UA 2381 8h 02m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 21:42 → EWR 23:54DL 2527 9h 06m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 2h 35m Denver DEN 19:13 → EWR 01:01 +1UA 2093 8h 43m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 1h 06m Phoenix PHX 08:36 → EWR 16:40AA 1327 7h 29m 94% 78%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:58 → EWR 16:15AA 813 7h 41m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:57 → PHX 14:24AA 2661 1h 46m Phoenix PHX 16:10 → EWR 23:59AA 1967 8h 02m 94% 75%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:59 → ORD 13:00UA 2226 3h 16m Chicago ORD 16:16 → EWR 19:34UA 249 9h 35m 99% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON