tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:48, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 9h 53m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 2h 00m Denver DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087 7h 53m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:59 → SEA 14:51DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest 1h 14m Seattle SEA 16:05 → IAD 00:08 +1DL 541 9h 09m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → ONT 08:26 → DFW 13:41AA 2893 2h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:09 → IAD 20:16AA 2254 8h 50m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375 1h 19m San Francisco SFO 16:34 → IAD 00:55 +1UA 1453 8h 05m 88% 75%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 12:04 → SEA 14:44AS 654 1h 10m Seattle SEA 15:54 → IAD 00:11 +1AS 675 9h 07m 90% 75%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 1h 22m Denver DEN 18:00 → IAD 23:32UA 2408 7h 14m 91% 74%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:59 → ORD 13:00UA 2226 1h 24m Chicago ORD 14:24 → IAD 17:15UA 587 7h 16m 95% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON