tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:48, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 10h 09m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375 3h 22m San Francisco SFO 18:37 → IAH 00:34 +1UA 2464 8h 44m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 3h 14m Denver DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 8h 09m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 3h 50m Denver DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419 8h 41m 97% 81%
FrontierDetails → ONT 09:51 → LAS 11:16F9 2232 3h 12m Las Vegas LAS 14:28 → IAH 19:58F9 1966 8h 07m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 1h 19m Phoenix PHX 08:49 → IAH 13:43AA 2357 5h 32m 94% 78%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:07 → IAH 13:28AA 1397 5h 54m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:59 → ORD 13:00UA 2226 3h 05m Chicago ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714 10h 11m 98% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON