Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 454 JetBlue Flight history →	ONT 23:51	JFK 08:13	19%	4%	1.2%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → JFK 00:55 +1DL 1632	10h 07m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	ONT 18:01 → SEA 20:50DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest	1h 50m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → JFK 06:50 +1DL 452	9h 49m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	7h 47m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	ONT 11:59 → SEA 14:51DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest	1h 13m Seattle	SEA 16:04 → JFK 00:11 +1DL 1044	9h 12m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	ONT 06:20 → SEA 09:15DL 3816 · flown by SkyWest	2h 19m Seattle	SEA 11:34 → JFK 20:15DL 415	10h 55m	98%	76%
American Details →	ONT 12:57 → PHX 14:24AA 2661	1h 27m Phoenix	PHX 15:51 → JFK 23:58AA 832	8h 01m	93%	74%
American Details →	ONT 08:26 → DFW 13:41AA 2893	3h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:39 → JFK 22:22AA 1248	10h 56m	97%	74%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194	2h 28m Phoenix	PHX 09:58 → JFK 18:06AA 2339	8h 55m	96%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON