Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3080 at 05:41 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 3080 ONT 05:41 → LAS 06:48 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4758 ONT 15:40 → LAS 16:51 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3080 Southwest	ONT 05:41	LAS 06:48	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 927 Southwest	ONT 07:49	LAS 08:56	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4314 Southwest	ONT 09:46	LAS 10:53	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
F9 2232 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 09:51	LAS 11:16	10%	4%	0.8%	84%
WN 1037 Southwest	ONT 16:52	LAS 17:59	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 554 Southwest	ONT 14:17	LAS 15:24	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 4758 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 15:40	LAS 16:51	17%	6%	0.8%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON