tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:48, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 8h 36m 96% 74%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 29m Denver DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46UA 2446 7h 46m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → ONT 10:25 → DFW 15:38AA 1820 3h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:54 → LGA 23:37AA 1375 10h 12m 97% 65%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 1h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:28 → LGA 17:13AA 672 8h 39m 97% 62%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 57m Denver DEN 17:35 → LGA 23:30UA 2033 7h 12m 82% 55%
AmericanDetails → ONT 08:26 → DFW 13:41AA 2893 3h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:49 → LGA 21:29AA 2513 10h 03m 97% 53%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:59 → ORD 13:00UA 2226 3h 16m Chicago ORD 16:16 → LGA 19:34UA 511 9h 35m 98% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON