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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 50m Denver DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354 8h 04m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:59 → ORD 13:00UA 2226 2h 29m Chicago ORD 15:29 → MCO 19:05UA 1929 9h 06m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 2h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 11:22 → MCO 17:42DL 1691 8h 42m 99% 73%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 1h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:15 → MCO 16:23AA 1615 7h 49m 97% 71%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 2h 40m Phoenix PHX 10:10 → MCO 17:31AA 603 8h 20m 97% 71%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 1h 00m Atlanta ATL 20:15 → MCO 21:54DL 1735 7h 06m 94% 70%
AmericanDetails → ONT 08:26 → DFW 13:41AA 2893 2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:33 → MCO 20:25AA 2791 8h 59m 97% 68%
AmericanDetails → ONT 10:25 → DFW 15:38AA 1820 1h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:18 → MCO 21:10AA 2974 7h 45m 95% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON