tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:48, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 10h 07m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 1h 30m Phoenix PHX 09:00 → MIA 16:41AA 1968 7h 30m 95% 80%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 34m Denver DEN 09:54 → MIA 16:03UA 1418 8h 03m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → ONT 05:34 → DFW 10:41AA 1412 2h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:48 → MIA 16:53AA 2461 8h 19m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:57 → PHX 14:24AA 2661 1h 41m Phoenix PHX 16:05 → MIA 23:27AA 1222 7h 30m 94% 72%
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:25 → DFW 17:31AA 2956 2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:05 → MIA 00:08 +1AA 2090 8h 43m 97% 71%
AmericanDetails → ONT 10:25 → DFW 15:38AA 1820 2h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:02 → MIA 22:03AA 2050 8h 38m 97% 69%
AmericanDetails → ONT 08:26 → DFW 13:41AA 2893 2h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:30 → MIA 20:35AA 3308 9h 09m 97% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON