tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: American via Phoenix, leaving 12:57, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2226 United Flight history → ONT 06:59 ORD 13:00 12% 4% 1.2% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375 3h 09m San Francisco SFO 18:24 → ORD 00:49 +1UA 1958 8h 59m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 10h 05m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:59 → SEA 14:51DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest 2h 49m Seattle SEA 17:40 → ORD 23:38DL 2108 9h 39m 98% 82%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 12:04 → SEA 14:44AS 654 3h 04m Seattle SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538 9h 55m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:57 → PHX 14:24AA 2661 3h 38m Phoenix PHX 18:02 → ORD 23:39AA 2569 8h 42m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329 6h 15m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 3h 44m Denver DEN 20:22 → ORD 23:45UA 377 8h 27m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:25 → DFW 17:31AA 2956 4h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:31 → ORD 23:56AA 1620 9h 31m 99% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON