tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AS 544 at 07:12, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 544 Alaska Flight history → ONT 07:12 PDX 09:42 6% 1% 0.7% 94%
AS 2456 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record ONT 17:32 PDX 19:49 7% 2% 1.3% 93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:00 → SLC 08:48DL 2708 2h 27m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 6h 10m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 3h 07m Denver DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644 8h 09m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375 3h 43m San Francisco SFO 18:58 → PDX 20:47UA 1227 6h 57m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 3h 17m Phoenix PHX 10:47 → PDX 13:49AA 2684 7h 38m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:57 → PHX 14:24AA 2661 3h 09m Phoenix PHX 17:33 → PDX 20:26AA 1625 7h 29m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 2h 52m Denver DEN 19:30 → PDX 21:15UA 498 7h 57m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:59 → SEA 14:51DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest 1h 09m Seattle SEA 16:00 → PDX 17:06DL 3918 · flown by SkyWest 5h 07m 95% 83%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 15:14 → SEA 17:58AS 575 2h 27m Seattle SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon 6h 08m 99% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON