Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 2–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 503 ONT 06:38 → PHX 07:54 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3876 ONT 18:07 → PHX 19:22 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 503 Southwest	ONT 06:38	PHX 07:54	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3087 Southwest	ONT 08:34	PHX 09:51	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 1194 American Flight history →	ONT 06:11	PHX 07:30	7%	3%	0.7%	92%
WN 3089 Southwest	ONT 15:42	PHX 17:10	8%	3%	0.4%	no record
AA 2661 American Flight history →	ONT 12:57	PHX 14:24	10%	4%	0.7%	79%
WN 3876 Southwest	ONT 18:07	PHX 19:22	11%	3%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON