Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 15–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5921 ONT 16:11 → SFO 18:10 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1387 ONT 08:03 → SFO 09:36 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5921 SkyWest	ONT 16:11	SFO 18:10	15%	8%	1.0%	no record
UA 1375 United Flight history →	ONT 13:50	SFO 15:15	18%	9%	0.6%	57%
OO 5905 SkyWest	ONT 11:21	SFO 13:02	19%	9%	0.9%	no record
UA 1387 United	ONT 08:03	SFO 09:36	19%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON