Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 4–5% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3872 ONT 09:47 → SLC 12:45 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1173 ONT 13:05 → SLC 15:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 4% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3872 SkyWest	ONT 09:47	SLC 12:45	4%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 2708 Delta Flight history →	ONT 06:00	SLC 08:48	4%	3%	0.7%	95%
OO 3744 SkyWest	ONT 17:10	SLC 20:08	4%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1173 Delta	ONT 13:05	SLC 15:59	5%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON