Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, OO 3031 at 16:27, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OO 3031 SkyWest	ONT 16:27	STS 18:07	12%	5%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194	2h 52m Phoenix	PHX 10:22 → STS 12:42AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	6h 31m	97%	86%
Alaska Details →	ONT 15:14 → SEA 17:58AS 575	1h 57m Seattle	SEA 19:55 → STS 21:51AS 1330	6h 37m	98%	81%
Alaska Details →	ONT 06:02 → SEA 08:44AS 607	1h 10m Seattle	SEA 09:54 → STS 11:58AS 1321	5h 56m	90%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON