Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 723 at 08:54 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 723 ORD 08:54 → ABQ 11:07 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 2159 ORD 21:01 → ABQ 23:23 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 723 United Flight history →	ORD 08:54	ABQ 11:07	9%	3%	0.5%	78%
AA 2068 American	ORD 11:04	ABQ 13:18	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2144 United	ORD 20:51	ABQ 22:57	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 2159 American	ORD 21:01	ABQ 23:23	21%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON