Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Alaska via Portland, leaving 14:12, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day


UA 841 United Flight history →	ORD 16:10	ANC 19:54	14%	4%	0.6%	62%
AA 375 American Flight history →	ORD 16:57	ANC 21:04	18%	5%	0.6%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 3 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 12:27 → MSP 14:10DL 1567	4h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377	11h 33m	98%	82%
American Details →	ORD 11:02 → DFW 13:37AA 1106	1h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:17 → ANC 19:28AA 399	11h 26m	97%	80%
United Details →	ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803	2h 37m Denver	DEN 19:08 → ANC 22:57UA 280	11h 24m	96%	80%
Alaska Details →	ORD 14:12 → PDX 16:47AS 325	1h 04m Portland	PDX 17:51 → ANC 20:50AS 1455	9h 38m	90%	78%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27DL 2041	1h 08m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922	9h 22m	94%	76%
Alaska Details →	ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407	3h 41m Seattle	SEA 22:03 → ANC 00:50 +1AS 1490	12h 07m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	ORD 13:01 → SEA 15:42AS 579	3h 16m Seattle	SEA 18:58 → ANC 21:42AS 1438	11h 41m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	ORD 05:59 → SEA 08:25AS 587	3h 46m Seattle	SEA 12:11 → ANC 14:58AS 1434	11h 59m	99%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ORD 13:01 → SEA 15:42AS 579	51m Seattle	SEA 16:33 → ANC 19:06AS 9560	9h 05m	72%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON