Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1336 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–17%.

Safest bet that day UA 1336 ORD 07:00 → AUS 09:57 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 438 ORD 14:59 → AUS 17:42 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1336 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	AUS 09:57	3%	2%	0.5%	91%
UA 1688 United Flight history →	ORD 09:01	AUS 11:59	6%	2%	0.5%	83%
UA 1061 United Flight history →	ORD 11:47	AUS 14:41	7%	3%	0.5%	81%
AA 1121 American	ORD 08:21	AUS 11:02	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1211 United	ORD 13:42	AUS 16:33	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 2433 American	ORD 19:04	AUS 21:49	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 438 American	ORD 14:59	AUS 17:42	17%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON