Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1913 at 07:46 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 1913 ORD 07:46 → BDL 11:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2165 ORD 19:26 → BDL 22:46 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1913 United	ORD 07:46	BDL 11:00	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 1408 American Flight history →	ORD 08:49	BDL 12:22	10%	3%	0.6%	64%
MQ 3890 Envoy	ORD 14:48	BDL 18:04	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2195 United Flight history →	ORD 11:03	BDL 14:24	11%	2%	0.5%	81%
UA 1617 United	ORD 14:46	BDL 18:02	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1616 United	ORD 18:09	BDL 21:21	20%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 2165 American Flight history →	ORD 19:26	BDL 22:46	21%	4%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON