Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 12–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 6258 ORD 11:21 → BHM 13:21 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5416 ORD 21:35 → BHM 23:27 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6258 SkyWest	ORD 11:21	BHM 13:21	12%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 4547 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	ORD 15:33	BHM 17:23	13%	4%	0.9%	66%
OO 5721 SkyWest	ORD 11:10	BHM 13:03	13%	5%	0.5%	no record
OO 5004 SkyWest	ORD 21:22	BHM 23:14	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 5416 SkyWest	ORD 21:35	BHM 23:27	13%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON