Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 3973 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 3973 ORD 06:40 → BNA 08:23 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 739 ORD 18:17 → BNA 19:47 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3973 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 06:40	BNA 08:23	8%	3%	2.0%	88%
UA 2073 United	ORD 07:02	BNA 08:50	11%	5%	1.0%	no record
YX 3498 Republic	ORD 12:48	BNA 14:41	13%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 2414 United Flight history →	ORD 10:37	BNA 12:29	14%	6%	0.9%	82%
AA 1224 American	ORD 00:07	BNA 01:32	16%	7%	1.8%	no record
AA 2362 American	ORD 11:25	BNA 13:07	17%	7%	1.2%	no record
UA 1674 United	ORD 08:53	BNA 10:38	18%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2991 American	ORD 13:33	BNA 15:16	20%	9%	1.4%	no record
OO 4917 SkyWest	ORD 08:27	BNA 10:10	21%	7%	2.3%	no record
AA 2556 American Flight history →	ORD 21:11	BNA 22:54	22%	9%	1.5%	44%
UA 314 United	ORD 21:41	BNA 23:23	22%	10%	1.1%	no record
UA 2142 United Flight history →	ORD 14:18	BNA 16:03	22%	10%	0.8%	69%
OO 4918 SkyWest	ORD 18:31	BNA 20:16	24%	14%	5.4%	no record
UA 1897 United	ORD 16:04	BNA 17:45	25%	12%	0.9%	no record
UA 739 United	ORD 18:17	BNA 19:47	32%	16%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON