Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 26 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1186 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–44%.

Safest bet that day UA 1186 ORD 06:05 → BOS 09:29 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 487 ORD 15:28 → BOS 18:55 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1186 United Flight history →	ORD 06:05	BOS 09:29	9%	3%	0.9%	92%
DL 2828 Delta Flight history →	ORD 06:59	BOS 10:30	9%	3%	1.2%	87%
AA 3022 American Flight history →	ORD 06:00	BOS 09:34	11%	3%	1.5%	97%
AA 3067 American	ORD 06:52	BOS 10:41	11%	3%	1.4%	no record
UA 659 United	ORD 07:46	BOS 11:10	17%	6%	1.0%	no record
DL 2570 Delta Flight history →	ORD 10:28	BOS 13:59	21%	6%	1.1%	76%
AA 802 American	ORD 09:08	BOS 12:52	21%	7%	1.5%	no record
UA 1367 United	ORD 09:25	BOS 12:57	23%	8%	0.9%	no record
AA 2578 American	ORD 10:32	BOS 14:20	25%	11%	1.3%	no record
UA 1779 United Flight history →	ORD 21:41	BOS 01:14	26%	11%	0.9%	68%
UA 1606 United Flight history →	ORD 10:30	BOS 14:07	26%	10%	0.8%	82%
B6 112 JetBlue	ORD 09:40	BOS 13:17	28%	10%	1.5%	no record
AA 2682 American Flight history →	ORD 20:29	BOS 00:05	29%	12%	1.6%	62%
B6 1012 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 20:10	BOS 23:41	34%	17%	2.2%	71%
AA 1479 American Flight history →	ORD 12:01	BOS 15:49	34%	15%	1.6%	50%
DL 2646 Delta Flight history →	ORD 19:25	BOS 23:00	37%	16%	1.4%	65%
AA 1162 American	ORD 15:52	BOS 19:42	37%	23%	1.5%	no record
AA 3107 American Flight history →	ORD 19:29	BOS 23:06	39%	16%	1.6%	56%
DL 2816 Delta Flight history →	ORD 15:19	BOS 18:59	42%	23%	1.4%	62%
UA 1365 United	ORD 19:43	BOS 23:09	43%	18%	1.1%	no record
UA 2331 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	BOS 21:56	44%	24%	1.6%	59%
AA 407 American Flight history →	ORD 17:12	BOS 20:45	44%	20%	3.7%	44%
AA 2294 American	ORD 13:58	BOS 17:47	44%	24%	3.3%	no record
UA 2401 United	ORD 13:19	BOS 16:41	45%	18%	1.0%	no record
UA 1928 United	ORD 14:07	BOS 17:46	46%	25%	1.5%	no record
UA 487 United	ORD 15:28	BOS 18:55	50%	27%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON