Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 265 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 265 ORD 06:57 → BUF 09:36 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1335 ORD 18:25 → BUF 20:54 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 265 United	ORD 06:57	BUF 09:36	10%	4%	0.9%	no record
YX 4751 Republic	ORD 08:44	BUF 11:33	14%	4%	2.3%	no record
UA 580 United	ORD 14:16	BUF 16:50	24%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 3013 American	ORD 14:29	BUF 17:13	24%	11%	1.7%	no record
OO 5275 SkyWest	ORD 10:25	BUF 13:06	25%	9%	2.8%	no record
AA 564 American Flight history →	ORD 19:59	BUF 22:47	26%	13%	1.9%	57%
OO 6087 SkyWest	ORD 16:40	BUF 19:19	30%	12%	4.7%	no record
UA 1335 United Flight history →	ORD 18:25	BUF 20:54	33%	16%	1.7%	66%
UA 4382 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:25	BUF 13:13	27%	12%	2.1%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON