Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 3762 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 3762 ORD 07:15 → BWI 10:27 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1557 ORD 18:11 → BWI 21:11 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3762 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 07:15	BWI 10:27	10%	3%	2.3%	93%
UA 1269 United Flight history →	ORD 07:46	BWI 10:40	13%	4%	0.8%	94%
AA 4253 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 10:13	BWI 13:25	13%	4%	1.4%	78%
UA 2653 United Flight history →	ORD 10:51	BWI 13:57	15%	5%	0.7%	83%
YX 4758 Republic	ORD 14:29	BWI 17:39	16%	7%	1.6%	no record
UA 2737 United	ORD 14:46	BWI 17:52	22%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 4663 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 18:13	BWI 21:22	22%	11%	4.9%	79%
UA 1557 United	ORD 18:11	BWI 21:11	30%	16%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON