Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4275 ORD 13:24 → CAE 16:22 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest OO 750 ORD 14:26 → CAE 17:33 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4275 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:24	CAE 16:22	7%	2%	1.0%	76%
YX 4529 Republic	ORD 20:41	CAE 23:50	8%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 5620 SkyWest	ORD 06:45	CAE 10:06	9%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 5594 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 17:46	CAE 20:49	15%	9%	0.7%	54%
OO 750 SkyWest	ORD 14:26	CAE 17:33	15%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON