Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3901 ORD 13:56 → CHA 16:49 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4536 ORD 16:05 → CHA 18:46 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3901 Envoy	ORD 13:56	CHA 16:49	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 5437 SkyWest	ORD 06:50	CHA 09:33	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3650 Envoy	ORD 19:39	CHA 22:22	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
G7 4523 GoJet	ORD 21:20	CHA 00:01	14%	4%	0.9%	no record
G7 4397 GoJet	ORD 10:51	CHA 13:30	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
G7 4536 GoJet	ORD 16:05	CHA 18:46	15%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON