Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2112 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 2112 ORD 07:16 → CHS 10:35 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2362 ORD 18:25 → CHS 21:48 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2112 United	ORD 07:16	CHS 10:35	14%	4%	1.0%	no record
MQ 3868 Envoy	ORD 15:33	CHS 19:00	17%	6%	1.9%	no record
UA 2631 United	ORD 10:53	CHS 14:12	18%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 823 American	ORD 19:36	CHS 23:12	21%	9%	1.8%	no record
AA 2154 American	ORD 09:55	CHS 13:29	22%	7%	1.3%	no record
UA 4664 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 14:50	CHS 18:21	23%	11%	1.1%	76%
UA 2362 United Flight history →	ORD 18:25	CHS 21:48	27%	12%	1.9%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON