Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 4231 at 23:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 4231 ORD 23:00 → CID 00:11 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest UA 254 ORD 21:23 → CID 22:28 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4231 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 23:00	CID 00:11	6%	2%	0.8%	72%
MQ 3732 Envoy	ORD 10:17	CID 11:39	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
G7 4175 GoJet	ORD 09:09	CID 10:35	10%	2%	1.0%	no record
MQ 3385 Envoy	ORD 18:54	CID 20:05	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 5399 SkyWest	ORD 13:51	CID 15:09	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
OO 6285 SkyWest	ORD 12:08	CID 13:27	17%	4%	0.8%	no record
OO 5544 SkyWest	ORD 16:23	CID 17:42	18%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 220 United	ORD 21:11	CID 22:20	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 254 United	ORD 21:23	CID 22:28	20%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON