Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1488 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1488 ORD 07:25 → CLE 09:54 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 2652 ORD 17:45 → CLE 20:13 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1488 United Flight history →	ORD 07:25	CLE 09:54	11%	4%	0.9%	90%
AA 6363 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:38	CLE 09:11	16%	4%	2.2%	78%
UA 2389 United Flight history →	ORD 10:29	CLE 12:58	17%	5%	0.8%	83%
UA 457 United Flight history →	ORD 21:20	CLE 23:49	23%	11%	1.2%	57%
MQ 3838 Envoy	ORD 21:18	CLE 23:47	23%	6%	5.5%	no record
UA 1502 United Flight history →	ORD 14:20	CLE 16:54	24%	9%	1.3%	79%
UA 8200 United	ORD 13:07	CLE 15:31	24%	9%	1.1%	no record
OO 4937 SkyWest	ORD 12:12	CLE 14:41	26%	8%	2.2%	no record
OO 5480 SkyWest	ORD 09:33	CLE 12:04	26%	8%	2.5%	no record
OO 4932 SkyWest	ORD 09:53	CLE 12:21	28%	8%	2.5%	no record
OO 5477 SkyWest	ORD 16:23	CLE 18:51	29%	11%	4.0%	no record
OO 4904 SkyWest	ORD 13:57	CLE 16:27	29%	12%	2.7%	no record
UA 1156 United	ORD 20:26	CLE 22:45	29%	12%	1.3%	no record
MQ 3912 Envoy	ORD 17:46	CLE 20:21	30%	13%	9.9%	no record
UA 2652 United Flight history →	ORD 17:45	CLE 20:13	30%	17%	1.7%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON