Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2842 at 05:07 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–15%.

Safest bet that day AA 2842 ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1748 ORD 18:15 → CLT 21:29 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2842 American Flight history →	ORD 05:07	CLT 08:10	3%	2%	0.6%	90%
YX 3426 Republic	ORD 07:04	CLT 10:26	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 3450 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 10:26	CLT 13:50	6%	2%	0.5%	89%
AA 1784 American Flight history →	ORD 06:30	CLT 09:37	6%	2%	0.6%	84%
YX 3518 Republic	ORD 14:14	CLT 17:36	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 411 American	ORD 08:09	CLT 11:20	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2080 American Flight history →	ORD 09:05	CLT 12:12	8%	2%	0.6%	84%
AA 3021 American	ORD 11:52	CLT 14:59	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1409 American Flight history →	ORD 13:21	CLT 16:31	10%	3%	0.6%	63%
AA 3188 American	ORD 16:47	CLT 19:58	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 689 American Flight history →	ORD 18:47	CLT 21:59	11%	4%	0.6%	68%
OO 9910 SkyWest	ORD 09:40	CLT 12:38	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1748 United Flight history →	ORD 18:15	CLT 21:29	15%	5%	0.5%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON