Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 3592 at 09:14 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–16%.

Safest bet that day YX 3592 ORD 09:14 → CMH 11:43 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1278 ORD 18:15 → CMH 20:43 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3592 Republic	ORD 09:14	CMH 11:43	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 3414 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 07:28	CMH 10:02	5%	1%	0.6%	87%
UA 451 United Flight history →	ORD 07:16	CMH 09:40	5%	2%	0.5%	87%
YX 3565 Republic	ORD 13:12	CMH 15:49	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3815 Envoy	ORD 12:11	CMH 14:39	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 3614 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 19:45	CMH 22:24	6%	2%	0.6%	73%
AA 4445 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:55	CMH 23:33	6%	3%	0.6%	72%
AA 3447 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:36	CMH 22:10	9%	2%	0.6%	66%
MQ 3917 Envoy	ORD 17:44	CMH 20:17	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3542 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 16:29	CMH 18:52	9%	2%	0.6%	84%
UA 1069 United Flight history →	ORD 14:18	CMH 16:53	10%	3%	0.5%	69%
UA 2063 United	ORD 10:58	CMH 13:22	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 6346 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:21	CMH 12:51	11%	3%	0.6%	71%
OO 5304 SkyWest	ORD 16:53	CMH 19:28	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1492 United Flight history →	ORD 21:30	CMH 23:59	15%	5%	0.5%	67%
UA 1278 United	ORD 18:15	CMH 20:43	16%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON