Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3394 ORD 08:41 → COU 10:16 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5614 ORD 09:29 → COU 11:00 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 3394 Envoy	ORD 08:41	COU 10:16	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3398 Envoy	ORD 16:48	COU 18:22	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 3696 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:30	COU 21:06	7%	3%	0.7%	59%
OO 5614 SkyWest	ORD 09:29	COU 11:00	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 4392 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 08:40	COU 10:13	22%	5%	0.0%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON