Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1970 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 1970 ORD 07:02 → CVG 09:29 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1732 ORD 17:38 → CVG 19:52 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1970 United	ORD 07:02	CVG 09:29	14%	5%	1.4%	no record
MQ 3680 Envoy	ORD 07:10	CVG 09:43	14%	3%	2.6%	no record
YX 4455 Republic	ORD 22:14	CVG 00:38	17%	4%	3.1%	no record
YX 3593 Republic	ORD 16:51	CVG 19:27	19%	7%	2.1%	no record
AA 3950 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 12:08	CVG 14:38	19%	5%	1.8%	80%
AA 4507 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 16:28	CVG 18:52	20%	6%	2.1%	93%worse than usual
AA 3690 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:29	CVG 22:00	21%	6%	2.9%	74%
OO 5215 SkyWest	ORD 09:01	CVG 11:30	25%	7%	2.6%	no record
OO 5266 SkyWest	ORD 10:43	CVG 13:03	26%	7%	2.2%	no record
AA 1007 American	ORD 21:23	CVG 23:44	28%	9%	1.5%	no record
OO 5521 SkyWest	ORD 13:14	CVG 15:45	28%	10%	2.3%	no record
UA 1223 United	ORD 21:26	CVG 23:40	31%	8%	1.4%	no record
OO 704 SkyWest	ORD 14:27	CVG 16:47	31%	11%	2.3%	no record
UA 1732 United Flight history →	ORD 17:38	CVG 19:52	33%	12%	1.7%	65%
UA 4388 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:59	CVG 15:30	17%	14%	2.7%	83%
UA 4445 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:29	CVG 19:00	29%	11%	9.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON