Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 4494 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–31%.

Safest bet that day YX 4494 ORD 06:16 → DCA 09:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2761 ORD 17:16 → DCA 20:19 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4494 Republic	ORD 06:16	DCA 09:35	7%	3%	1.6%	no record
AA 495 American	ORD 06:59	DCA 10:14	9%	3%	1.6%	no record
UA 482 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	DCA 09:59	14%	5%	1.0%	86%
UA 1077 United Flight history →	ORD 07:28	DCA 10:26	14%	5%	1.0%	92%
UA 1904 United	ORD 10:14	DCA 13:19	18%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 315 American	ORD 09:57	DCA 13:13	18%	8%	1.7%	no record
AA 1200 American Flight history →	ORD 10:39	DCA 13:44	19%	8%	1.4%	61%
UA 1705 United Flight history →	ORD 08:13	DCA 11:12	19%	6%	1.0%	90%
AA 523 American Flight history →	ORD 08:58	DCA 12:08	20%	7%	1.8%	79%
AA 2345 American Flight history →	ORD 08:00	DCA 10:59	20%	5%	1.8%	77%
UA 2668 United Flight history →	ORD 11:15	DCA 14:22	21%	9%	0.8%	69%
AA 535 American	ORD 20:49	DCA 23:55	22%	10%	2.2%	no record
UA 202 United	ORD 09:20	DCA 12:19	23%	8%	1.0%	no record
UA 752 United Flight history →	ORD 12:45	DCA 15:52	23%	10%	0.9%	65%
AA 789 American	ORD 13:19	DCA 16:40	24%	11%	1.9%	no record
UA 1314 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	DCA 17:12	24%	11%	0.8%	56%
UA 1941 United Flight history →	ORD 15:00	DCA 18:11	24%	11%	1.0%	66%
UA 2160 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	DCA 22:54	25%	12%	1.1%	56%
AA 2769 American Flight history →	ORD 14:55	DCA 18:00	25%	11%	1.4%	74%
UA 2812 United	ORD 16:16	DCA 19:20	26%	13%	0.9%	no record
AA 489 American Flight history →	ORD 17:04	DCA 20:21	26%	16%	4.4%	70%
AA 1187 American Flight history →	ORD 18:59	DCA 22:15	26%	15%	4.3%	58%
AA 514 American	ORD 17:58	DCA 21:15	28%	16%	4.5%	no record
UA 1369 United Flight history →	ORD 18:00	DCA 21:10	29%	15%	1.7%	50%
UA 2761 United	ORD 17:16	DCA 20:19	31%	16%	3.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON