Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2666 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 2666 ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AA 1387 ORD 18:54 → DEN 20:40 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2666 United Flight history →	ORD 05:00	DEN 06:41	5%	2%	0.7%	98%
UA 2806 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	DEN 07:42	8%	2%	0.7%	97%
UA 1217 United Flight history →	ORD 07:05	DEN 08:55	11%	4%	0.8%	92%
MQ 3964 Envoy	ORD 07:02	DEN 08:54	13%	4%	1.3%	no record
UA 2857 United	ORD 11:09	DEN 12:53	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2363 American Flight history →	ORD 09:47	DEN 11:46	19%	5%	0.9%	80%
AA 1277 American	ORD 12:03	DEN 13:58	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 2803 United Flight history →	ORD 14:33	DEN 16:31	20%	7%	0.6%	76%
AA 1225 American	ORD 08:16	DEN 10:13	21%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 2001 American	ORD 22:24	DEN 00:07	21%	5%	1.2%	no record
UA 318 United	ORD 08:53	DEN 10:38	23%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1317 American	ORD 15:12	DEN 17:08	24%	8%	0.9%	no record
UA 2769 United Flight history →	ORD 16:12	DEN 18:13	24%	9%	0.6%	61%
UA 1974 United Flight history →	ORD 18:17	DEN 20:22	24%	10%	1.4%	58%
UA 2324 United	ORD 13:42	DEN 15:24	24%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 767 United Flight history →	ORD 21:53	DEN 23:28	25%	7%	0.8%	71%
UA 2809 United	ORD 12:58	DEN 14:39	25%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 1882 United	ORD 16:36	DEN 18:26	25%	8%	0.6%	no record
F9 1483 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 16:37	DEN 18:33	27%	9%	2.1%	71%
UA 329 United Flight history →	ORD 19:43	DEN 21:18	31%	7%	0.8%	75%
AA 1387 American Flight history →	ORD 18:54	DEN 20:40	32%	11%	3.5%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON