Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 11 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4402 ORD 22:32 → DSM 00:00 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest OO 4890 ORD 17:47 → DSM 19:08 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4402 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 22:32	DSM 00:00	8%	3%	0.6%	80%
UA 1658 United	ORD 13:02	DSM 14:26	9%	4%	0.5%	no record
YX 4769 Republic	ORD 15:48	DSM 17:16	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 466 United	ORD 09:20	DSM 10:40	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 4955 SkyWest	ORD 07:20	DSM 08:57	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1839 United Flight history →	ORD 21:25	DSM 22:56	15%	5%	0.5%	60%
OO 5412 SkyWest	ORD 11:21	DSM 12:54	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2836 United	ORD 16:36	DSM 17:56	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 4933 SkyWest	ORD 12:48	DSM 14:17	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 4659 SkyWest	ORD 22:00	DSM 23:22	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 4890 SkyWest	ORD 17:47	DSM 19:08	17%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON