Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 3632 at 09:09 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–20%.

Safest bet that day YX 3632 ORD 09:09 → DTW 11:44 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 642 ORD 18:35 → DTW 20:44 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3632 Republic	ORD 09:09	DTW 11:44	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 3706 Republic	ORD 07:01	DTW 09:27	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2039 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:05	DTW 09:30	5%	2%	0.6%	87%
AA 3977 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 10:02	DTW 12:39	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
AA 3980 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:10	DTW 15:33	6%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 2840 Delta	ORD 08:56	DTW 11:20	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1716 Delta Flight history →	ORD 14:07	DTW 16:40	9%	2%	0.6%	78%
AA 6255 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 07:19	DTW 09:37	9%	2%	0.6%	93%
MQ 3947 Envoy	ORD 17:17	DTW 19:53	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4012 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 21:16	DTW 23:51	9%	2%	0.6%	100%
OO 3819 SkyWest	ORD 11:14	DTW 13:39	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 5756 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:50	DTW 13:27	10%	3%	0.6%	77%
DL 2358 Delta Flight history →	ORD 17:18	DTW 19:50	12%	3%	0.6%	71%
OO 5882 SkyWest	ORD 13:10	DTW 15:44	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2632 United	ORD 15:28	DTW 17:47	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 4885 SkyWest	ORD 18:51	DTW 21:15	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 349 United	ORD 21:25	DTW 23:44	18%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 768 United	ORD 19:38	DTW 21:57	18%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 642 United	ORD 18:35	DTW 20:44	20%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON