Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, YX 3634 at 10:51, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


YX 3634 Republic	ORD 10:51	ECP 13:27	7%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	5h 18m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	ORD 13:44 → ATL 16:54DL 2894	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 19:06 → ECP 19:20DL 3053	5h 36m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094	4h 52m	97%	88%
American Details →	ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842	2h 38m Charlotte	CLT 10:48 → ECP 11:32AA 5262 · flown by PSA	6h 25m	99%	87%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:46 → ECP 11:52AA 3625 · flown by Envoy	6h 52m	99%	86%
United Details →	ORD 07:35 → IAH 10:36UA 1231	1h 44m Houston	IAH 12:20 → ECP 14:20UA 4969 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 45m	99%	84%
American Details →	ORD 14:58 → DFW 17:24AA 2429	2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:41 → ECP 21:59AA 3628 · flown by Envoy	7h 01m	91%	82%
American Details →	ORD 08:30 → DFW 11:04AA 1555	1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:24 → ECP 14:37AA 2052	6h 07m	93%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON