Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2659 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–43%.

Safest bet that day UA 2659 ORD 06:07 → EWR 09:15 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2466 ORD 14:11 → EWR 17:16 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2659 United	ORD 06:07	EWR 09:15	9%	3%	1.4%	no record
AA 699 American	ORD 06:48	EWR 10:15	10%	3%	2.6%	no record
UA 2759 United Flight history →	ORD 04:50	EWR 07:54	15%	5%	1.9%	47%
UA 1273 United	ORD 07:46	EWR 10:54	16%	7%	1.6%	no record
UA 2238 United	ORD 09:20	EWR 12:33	22%	10%	1.6%	no record
UA 1856 United Flight history →	ORD 10:51	EWR 14:17	22%	9%	1.2%	80%
UA 759 United Flight history →	ORD 20:07	EWR 23:39	23%	12%	1.7%	65%
UA 1209 United Flight history →	ORD 21:30	EWR 00:53	24%	9%	1.7%	68%
UA 606 United Flight history →	ORD 12:16	EWR 15:44	25%	12%	1.3%	78%
AA 2416 American	ORD 11:00	EWR 14:09	30%	10%	2.6%	no record
AA 2549 American Flight history →	ORD 20:09	EWR 23:30	30%	12%	3.2%	45%
UA 249 United	ORD 16:16	EWR 19:34	36%	14%	1.5%	no record
AA 1936 American Flight history →	ORD 13:10	EWR 16:30	37%	15%	3.2%	65%
UA 1630 United Flight history →	ORD 17:23	EWR 20:42	38%	17%	2.5%	70%
UA 2790 United	ORD 18:25	EWR 21:35	40%	17%	3.6%	no record
UA 1236 United	ORD 14:58	EWR 18:04	40%	16%	1.3%	no record
AA 3253 American Flight history →	ORD 17:36	EWR 21:00	43%	19%	6.7%	47%
UA 2466 United	ORD 14:11	EWR 17:16	43%	18%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON