Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Seattle, leaving 06:55, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Fairbanks on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Fairbanks on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 3 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27DL 2041	1h 18m Seattle	SEA 10:45 → FAI 13:42DL 1061	9h 47m	96%	78%
Alaska Details →	ORD 05:58 → SEA 08:21AS 587	4h 00m Seattle	SEA 12:21 → FAI 15:17AS 230	12h 19m	99%	73%
Alaska Details →	ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407	1h 32m Seattle	SEA 19:54 → FAI 22:43AS 349	10h 00m	91%	72%
Alaska Details →	ORD 13:01 → SEA 15:42AS 579	2h 14m Seattle	SEA 17:56 → FAI 20:46AS 284	10h 45m	88%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ORD 19:35 → SEA 21:53AS 337	1h 03m Seattle	SEA 22:56 → FAI 01:46 +1AS 351	9h 11m	70%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON