Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1424 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1424 ORD 06:52 → FLL 11:14 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest UA 463 ORD 17:46 → FLL 21:43 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1424 American Flight history →	ORD 06:52	FLL 11:14	16%	4%	1.4%	77%
UA 1421 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	FLL 11:13	17%	5%	1.1%	91%
UA 279 United Flight history →	ORD 10:59	FLL 15:13	18%	6%	0.7%	76%
UA 1294 United	ORD 12:41	FLL 16:48	23%	7%	0.8%	no record
B6 664 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 07:00	FLL 11:14	25%	7%	2.1%	89%worse than usual
F9 2205 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 08:05	FLL 12:22	27%	8%	2.2%	68%
AA 2881 American Flight history →	ORD 17:02	FLL 21:22	28%	11%	4.2%	62%
B6 864 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 14:35	FLL 18:49	29%	11%	2.1%	67%
UA 463 United	ORD 17:46	FLL 21:43	33%	13%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON