Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 4597 ORD 08:59 → FSD 10:47 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest OO 5359 ORD 16:02 → FSD 17:45 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4597 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	ORD 08:59	FSD 10:47	10%	3%	0.8%	68%
UA 1842 United Flight history →	ORD 21:30	FSD 23:31	14%	7%	0.6%	60%
OO 4991 SkyWest	ORD 10:01	FSD 11:55	15%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 4958 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 22:35	FSD 00:18	15%	8%	0.7%	50%
OO 4992 SkyWest	ORD 16:38	FSD 18:30	16%	8%	0.6%	no record
OO 5645 SkyWest	ORD 12:39	FSD 14:22	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 5359 SkyWest	ORD 16:02	FSD 17:45	19%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON