Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5470 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:23	GEG 12:45	22%	8%	1.1%	79%
AA 677 American Flight history →	ORD 11:10	GEG 13:07	24%	6%	0.8%	59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Spokane is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 07:29 → LAX 10:00DL 1556	3h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 13:00 → GEG 15:35DL 3794 · flown by SkyWest	10h 06m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → GEG 11:33DL 814	8h 03m	95%	85%
Alaska Details →	ORD 05:59 → SEA 08:25AS 587	1h 30m Seattle	SEA 09:55 → GEG 11:00AS 2200 · flown by Horizon	7h 01m	95%	85%
United Details →	ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806	3h 33m Denver	DEN 11:15 → GEG 12:37UA 295	8h 37m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	ORD 13:00 → SEA 15:44DL 1564	2h 15m Seattle	SEA 17:59 → GEG 19:15DL 3832 · flown by SkyWest	8h 15m	96%	82%
Alaska Details →	ORD 08:06 → SEA 10:23AS 583	3h 59m Seattle	SEA 14:22 → GEG 15:25AS 2074 · flown by Horizon	9h 19m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27DL 2041	1h 23m Seattle	SEA 10:50 → GEG 12:11DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest	7h 16m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	ORD 17:54 → MSP 19:31DL 1306	2h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 21:59 → GEG 23:06DL 2418	7h 12m	94%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ORD 08:06 → SEA 10:23AS 583	1h 10m Seattle	SEA 11:33 → GEG 12:40AS 454	6h 34m	70%	50%
American Details →	ORD 14:58 → DFW 17:24AA 2429	1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:30 → GEG 20:19AA 2757	7h 21m	69%	50%
Alaska Details →	ORD 19:36 → SEA 21:57AS 337	58m Seattle	SEA 22:55 → GEG 00:02 +1AS 1382	6h 26m	64%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON