Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: MQ 3455 at 13:41 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3455 ORD 13:41 → GRR 15:53 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1819 ORD 21:43 → GRR 23:41 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3455 Envoy	ORD 13:41	GRR 15:53	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
YX 4780 Republic	ORD 11:52	GRR 14:01	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 5784 SkyWest	ORD 06:22	GRR 08:12	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 1297 United Flight history →	ORD 10:47	GRR 13:00	6%	3%	0.5%	89%
AA 6365 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 07:20	GRR 09:30	7%	2%	0.7%	50%
AA 3793 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 22:30	GRR 00:34	8%	2%	0.8%	68%
AA 4729 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 17:10	GRR 19:20	8%	3%	0.6%	62%
UA 2751 United	ORD 12:33	GRR 14:31	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 5568 SkyWest	ORD 09:06	GRR 11:09	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 5567 SkyWest	ORD 14:45	GRR 16:49	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 5656 SkyWest	ORD 17:50	GRR 19:53	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 5250 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 15:59	GRR 18:02	14%	5%	0.6%	58%
AA 3177 American	ORD 20:59	GRR 23:04	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2472 United	ORD 19:38	GRR 21:37	18%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 1819 United Flight history →	ORD 21:43	GRR 23:41	19%	5%	0.5%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON