Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4144 ORD 10:47 → GSO 13:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest G7 4502 ORD 18:38 → GSO 21:30 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4144 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 10:47	GSO 13:56	7%	1%	0.7%	95%
G7 4539 GoJet	ORD 07:09	GSO 10:17	7%	2%	0.9%	no record
AA 3648 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 18:40	GSO 21:47	11%	2%	0.7%	78%
AA 4118 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:07	GSO 18:07	11%	2%	0.7%	92%
G7 4565 GoJet	ORD 14:31	GSO 17:26	15%	4%	0.9%	no record
G7 4502 GoJet	ORD 18:38	GSO 21:30	16%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON